Monday, June 29, 2015

Why ISIS can win

Before 1917, nobody would guess that a group of the fanatical bolsheviks, armed with social ideology could win a civil war in a ruined Russia and install a brutal sadistic state for almost a century, controlling half of the planet and having organised supporters in almost all other states,...

What about ISIS before 2017 ?

The similarities are striking:
  • Both movements were using ideology, which is generally acceptable in its weak, moderate form. This gets them the support, or at least the tolerance from the wide population (and many intellectuals).
    • It was the social justice for the bolsheviks - who could be against it ?
    • It is islam for ISIS - the vast majority of muslims are completely peaceful, aren't they ? 
  • Both revolution were lead by the fanatical vanguard, ready to sacrifice themselves (and certainly to sacrifice others) for the final victory.
  • In both cases, the final victory was realized in a country after the bloody civil war, in the environment of chaos and desolation. People did prefer any power instead of general anarchy.
    • This was Russia after the Great War.
    • This is Middle East after unsuccessful interventions (Russia in Afghanistan, USA & comp in Iraq, France & comp in Libya), unsuccessful non-interventions (in Syria) and storm of civil wars and revolutions.
And those are not the only cases. One can find similarities in origins of almost all totalitarian regimes (unless they were planted from outside).

This is why ISIS can win and we may be living next one or two generations in a new Cold War. This time against the Islamic Empire in the Middle East and its local branches all over the world.

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