Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Co musí Izrael udělat, aby byli jeho arabští sousedé spokojeni ?

Otázka arabsko-izraelského nepřátelství je ve skutečnosti strašně jednoduchá:

Co musí Izrael udělat aby své arabské sousedy uspokojil ?

Pokud jedinou odpovědi je "zmizet", Izrael opravdu nemá o čem diskutovat.

Ano, Izrael se často dopouští ohavných činu. Ale má na výběr ?

Palestinský problém je normálním problémem všech rozpadlých impérií. V tomto případě Turecké říše. Příliš se neliší od zmatku po rozpadu Rakousko-Uherské nebo Ruské říše. Území obývané směsí národů které se vzájemně nenávidí. Obrovské problémy vytvořit nové státy, nakreslit nové hranice. Je to bolestivé, trvá to dlouho, ale časem se to usadí a vyřeší. Všude, kromě Palestiny. A důvod je jediný: Pouze v Palestině jsou jedním z těchno národů židé.

Izrael je pravděpodobně jediný stát na světě, který nemá vůbec žádné mezinárodní záruky přežití. Všichni ostatní jsou buď dostatečně velcí, nebo jsou chráněni mezinárodními smlouvami. Izrael je malou zemí uprostřed nepřátelského prostředí. Když je Izrael napaden, nikdo mu nepomůže. A Izrael je napadán bez přestávky, od svého založení.

Ještě dvě poznámky:

  • Palestinci nemají právo na návrat. Milióny lidí na celém světě byly nuceny opustit své domovy. Indové z Pakistánu, muslimové z Indie, židé z většiny arabských zemí, němci ze Sudet, němci a poláci s Konigsbergu. Seznam nemá konce. Nikdo z těchto lidí nemá právo na návrat. Proč by pro arabské palestince měla platit výjimka ?
  • Gáza nebyla pod blokádou, když ji Izrael opustil. Hranice byly otevřené. Zavřeli se až poté, co teroristé vyhráli volby a Gaza se stala pevnost v boji proti Izraeli. Teprve potom Izrael (spolu s Egyptem) zavřel své hranice s Gazou aby zabránil neustálým teroristickým útokům. Hranice se mohou otevřít pouze dostale-li Izrael solidní záruku, že útoky znovu nezačnou.


Dilbert (Scott Adams) to konečně vyjádřil lépe než já:
This got me thinking again about my own opinions on the Palestinian problem. People like to say it’s unsolvable because it’s so “complicated.” But to me it really boils down to one question: If Israel did everything that was asked of it (short eliminating itself), would its enemies stop trying to annihilate it ?
As a rational person, you might be tempted to imagine yourself in the shoes of the Palestinians and say “of course!” Unfortunately, you are not in charge of the Palestinians. Hamas is. And their stated policy is the elimination of Israel. As long as that’s their written objective, Israel’s only sensible policy is to keep them so weakened they can’t raise a proper army. And while I feel that collective punishment in disguise is grotesque, how do you ask Israel to stop acting sensibly ? And while Israel is at it, they might as well pick up some real estate too. What’s the worst thing that could happen – the Palestinians will get mad ?

Friday, August 1, 2014

What should Israel do to make its Arab neighbors happy ?

In the end, the question of Palestine is simple:

What should Israel do
to make its Arab neighbors happy ?
As long as the only answer is "to disappear", there is really nothing to discuss.

Yes, Israel does sometimes disgusting things. But what other choice it has ?

The problems in the Palestine are the usual problems of disappeared empires. The Ottoman Empire in this case. It's very similar to situation after the fall of Austro-Hungarian Empire or Russian Empire. The populations which don't like each other live intermixed, it is difficult to create new states, to draw new borders. It takes time, it's very painful, but eventually, it succeeds. Not in this case, because one of the players is zionist.

Israel is probably the only state in the world which has absolutely no real international guarantee to stay alive. All others are either big enough or protected by their alliances (like NATO). Israel is a small country in the middle of largely hostile environment. When Israel is attacked, nobody helps. And Israel is attacked almost without interruption since its creation.

Two more facts to clarify:

  1. There is no right of return. There are hundreds of millions people who has been forced to leave their homes. Hindus of Pakistan, Muslims of India, Jews in most Arab countries, Tatars of Crimea, Germans of Sudetens, Germans and Poles of Konigsberg. The list is endless. None of them have a right of return. Why Arabs of Palestine should be different ?
  2. Gaza was not blocked when Israel has left it. The border was open. It is closed only since terrorist have won the election and Gaza has become a fortress in the war against Israel. Israel (and Egypt) have closed its borders with Gaza after constant terrorist attacks of Israel from Gaza. They can only re-open them when they have a solid guarantee that the attacks will not start again.

In  fact, Dilbert (Scott Adams) can say it better:
This got me thinking again about my own opinions on the Palestinian problem. People like to say it’s unsolvable because it’s so “complicated.” But to me it really boils down to one question: If Israel did everything that was asked of it (short eliminating itself), would its enemies stop trying to annihilate it ?
As a rational person, you might be tempted to imagine yourself in the shoes of the Palestinians and say “of course!” Unfortunately, you are not in charge of the Palestinians. Hamas is. And their stated policy is the elimination of Israel. As long as that’s their written objective, Israel’s only sensible policy is to keep them so weakened they can’t raise a proper army. And while I feel that collective punishment in disguise is grotesque, how do you ask Israel to stop acting sensibly ? And while Israel is at it, they might as well pick up some real estate too. What’s the worst thing that could happen – the Palestinians will get mad ?