Monday, June 29, 2015

Why ISIS can win

Before 1917, nobody would guess that a group of the fanatical bolsheviks, armed with social ideology could win a civil war in a ruined Russia and install a brutal sadistic state for almost a century, controlling half of the planet and having organised supporters in almost all other states,...

What about ISIS before 2017 ?

The similarities are striking:
  • Both movements were using ideology, which is generally acceptable in its weak, moderate form. This gets them the support, or at least the tolerance from the wide population (and many intellectuals).
    • It was the social justice for the bolsheviks - who could be against it ?
    • It is islam for ISIS - the vast majority of muslims are completely peaceful, aren't they ? 
  • Both revolution were lead by the fanatical vanguard, ready to sacrifice themselves (and certainly to sacrifice others) for the final victory.
  • In both cases, the final victory was realized in a country after the bloody civil war, in the environment of chaos and desolation. People did prefer any power instead of general anarchy.
    • This was Russia after the Great War.
    • This is Middle East after unsuccessful interventions (Russia in Afghanistan, USA & comp in Iraq, France & comp in Libya), unsuccessful non-interventions (in Syria) and storm of civil wars and revolutions.
And those are not the only cases. One can find similarities in origins of almost all totalitarian regimes (unless they were planted from outside).

This is why ISIS can win and we may be living next one or two generations in a new Cold War. This time against the Islamic Empire in the Middle East and its local branches all over the world.

Sunday, June 28, 2015


Greek Gift

To make several things clear:
  1. The origin of the Greek problem is in Greece, in its catastrophic government during last 30 years. Certainly, others has their part of the responsibility. They knew the situation, did not appropriately reacted and kept feeding money into Greece. But the main responsibility is on the shoulders of the successive Greek governments, elected in democratic election. The recent politics of IMF and EU has probably not helped to solve the situation, but they have been decided only after Greece has failed to execute adequate reforms itself. Mr.Tsipras should stop accusing everybody else and start the real reforms:
    • Is Greece still one of most non-egalitarianism state of Europe (as measured by GINI) ?
    • Has Greece still have one of the proportionally biggest army of the World ?
    • Is Orthodox Church still exonerated of the taxes ?
    • And shipbuilders ?
  2. Nobody has stolen the Greek money. The Greece has received the loan under better conditions that private investors (because states are considered less risky). Even after the catastrophy has become obvious, the Greek debt conditions have been kept better than for anybody else. Greek lenders suffer today as well as Greek people.
  3. It's not true that the erasure of the debt would be painless. In the end, someone will have to pay, directly on indirectly (for example by inflation). It's great to make a referendum about paying the debt. But other European countries then should hold similar referendum, if they accept that Greece will not paying them back their money. Such referendum would be especially interesting in countries, which have sanitized their states and economies after the crises and see today their economy awaking. Even more interesting would be the reaction of the former Russian colonies in the Central Europe, which have performed similar (liberal - what a horror !) reforms as are today proposed by IMF in the end of the last century with dramatically positive effect. And which have received far less European money that Greece.
  4. Of course everybody knows that Greece can't pay all its debts. But before the debt can be partially erased, the Greek economy should be reformed. Nobody wants to restart the same history as we are experiencing now. (By the way, IMF, so much hated by the current Greek government, is the only  one who proposes that; under the condition that Greece performs effective reforms.)


Valencia - City of Arts and Sciences

Valencia 2

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Russian agent Сноуден

  1. Most of the Сноуден's revelations are simply lies, most probably fabricated by Russian Desiformation Service.
  2. Of course USA spies on France. And France spies on USA (or at least should do that). That is their job.