Monday, March 17, 2025

Why ?

 Mostly, even if we don't agree with him, Trump does things that are popular with a large part of his voters.

With one exception - Ukraine. Even for Trump voters, Ukraine is significantly more popular than Russia. But Trump still stands very visibly on Russia's side.

Why?

Are we prepared ?

 I hope that Europe is preparing for the following, very likely, scenario:

  • Tomorrow Trump will accede to the demands of his Russian boss, including:
    • disarmament of Ukraine
    • replacement of the Ukrainian government with Russian collaborators
    • handover of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to Russia
    • handover of Odessa (with its port) to Russia
  • Ukraine will not agree
  • Trump will label Ukraine a warmonger, lift sanctions against Russia and stop all support for Ukraine (and perhaps replace it with support for Russia)

Is Europe ready to support Ukraine against Trump's will?

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Smart

President Trump announced that he would personally develop a strategy for American warfare against Greenland, Denmark, Canada, and Panama. He said:

"I have to do it, not the generals, they're smart, but I'm smarter, would you believe it?

People have said I'm smarter than them.

I'm very smart."

Monday, March 3, 2025

How many Ukrainiens have been killed in 20th century by Russians

Key Events and Estimates

Russian Civil War and Early Soviet Period (1917–1922)

After the Russian Revolution, Ukraine saw significant conflict during the Russian Civil War, including the struggle for independence (1917–1921) and subsequent Soviet consolidation. Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died due to fighting, executions, and famine. While exact numbers are elusive, some historians estimate around 100,000 to 500,000 Ukrainian deaths from violence and related causes during this period, with a portion attributable to Bolshevik (Russian-led) forces.

Holodomor (1932–1933)

The Holodomor, a man-made famine orchestrated by Stalin’s Soviet regime, is one of the most significant events. It targeted Ukrainian peasants through grain requisitions and collectivization policies, resulting in mass starvation. Estimates of deaths vary widely:

Scholarly consensus ranges from 3.5 million to 5 million deaths, with some estimates as high as 7–10 million when including indirect effects.

A commonly cited figure is around 3.9 million direct deaths, based on demographic studies and Soviet records analyzed post-1991.

This event is widely recognized as a genocide against Ukrainians by Soviet authorities, who were predominantly Russian-led at the time.

Stalinist Purges and Repressions (1930s–1950s)

Beyond the Holodomor, Stalin’s purges targeted Ukrainian intellectuals, clergy, and perceived nationalists. The Great Purge (1936–1938) and post-WWII repressions resulted in executions, deportations, and deaths in Gulags. Estimates suggest:

Approximately 300,000 to 500,000 Ukrainians were executed or died in camps during the 1930s.

Post-WWII deportations (e.g., of Crimean Tatars and western Ukrainians) added tens of thousands more deaths, with some estimates reaching 100,000–200,000 from 1944–1953.

World War II (1939–1945)

During WWII, Ukraine was a major battleground, suffering immense losses under Nazi occupation and Soviet reoccupation. While most deaths were caused by German forces (including the Holocaust, with 850,000–1.6 million Jews killed in Ukraine), Soviet policies and actions also contributed:

Soviet scorched-earth retreats and reprisals killed civilians, with estimates of 500,000–1 million Ukrainian civilian deaths linked to Soviet actions.

Total war-related deaths in Ukraine are estimated at 6–7 million (civilian and military), but isolating those specifically "by Russians" is challenging. A conservative estimate attributes 500,000 to Soviet forces (e.g., NKVD killings, forced conscription deaths).

Post-WWII Insurgency and Repression (1940s–1950s)

The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) fought Soviet forces after WWII, leading to brutal reprisals. Soviet authorities killed or deported hundreds of thousands:

Estimates suggest 100,000–200,000 Ukrainians died in combat or repression campaigns against the UPA and civilian supporters.

Total Estimate

Adding these figures:

  • Low estimate: 3.9 million (Holodomor) + 100,000 (Civil War) + 300,000 (Purges) + 500,000 (WWII Soviet) + 100,000 (Post-WWII) = 4.9 million.
  • High estimate: 7 million (Holodomor) + 500,000 (Civil War) + 500,000 (Purges) + 1 million (WWII Soviet) + 200,000 (Post-WWII) = 9.2 million.
  • Reasonable range: 5–9 million Ukrainians killed by Russian or Soviet forces across the 20th century.

These numbers exclude deaths from natural causes exacerbated by Soviet policies (e.g., non-Holodomor famines) and focus on direct violence or deliberate starvation.

Percentage of Population

Ukraine’s population varied over the century:

In 1930 (pre-Holodomor), it was approximately 31 million.

By 1950 (post-WWII), it was around 36 million, despite massive losses, due to border changes and migration.

Using a mid-century average of ~33 million for simplicity:

  • Low estimate: 4.9 million / 33 million = ~15%.
  • High estimate: 9.2 million / 33 million = ~28%.
  • Range: Approximately 15–28% of Ukraine’s 20th-century population.


Wednesday, February 26, 2025

American Presidents and Russia

Many American presidents initially had illusions about Russia.

Bush liked Putin's eyes, Obama wanted to restart relations with Russia,... 

But they all quickly understood what kind of country Russia really is. 

All of them - except for one. And we can only guess why that one doesn't understand or doesn't want to understand.

Sunday, February 23, 2025

How little the world changes

 Karel Čapek, 1937

Peace

We do not want war. A punitive expedition is sufficient against the weaker.

No war

Proof that we really do not want war: we fight without declaring war.

Note

As proof of our peace-loving nature, we show our willingness to have the enemy surrender to our mercy.

Protest

We complain to the civilized world that the barbarous enemy, instead of accepting our terms, lets us kill his women and children.

Report

Our air force bombed the enemy forces with resounding success. One soldier, seventy women and a hundred children were killed.

Proof

As proof of our efforts to come to an agreement with a neighboring state, we began bombing its open cities.

Report

The enemy attempted to insidiously fire on our planes, which were peacefully dropping bombs on its cities.

Goodwill

We are willing to submit our conflict to an international conference, but on the condition that it will be in our favor.

The progress of civilization

They shoot more effectively, but at least it's not called war anymore.

Gangster

Sir, if you defend yourself, I would have been forced to consider it unfriendly behavior.

Robber

He attacked me, while I was only defending my interest in his wallet.

Friday, February 21, 2025

Trump so far

 So far, Trump's measures can be divided into three groups:

  1. Symbolic, irrelevant, cultural changes to satisfy his voters.
  2. Russian plan to destroy American democracy and American position in the world.
  3. Raising and securing unprecedented personal power.

Thursday, February 20, 2025

What would Ronald Reagan say today (according to AI)


Address to the Nation from the Oval Office

February 20, 2025  

My fellow Americans,  

Tonight, I speak to you about a struggle unfolding half a world away, but one that reaches right into the heart of who we are as a people. In Ukraine, a free nation stands under siege. Its cities burn, its people fight, and its spirit endures against the shadow of tyranny cast by the Kremlin. This is not just their war—it is a test of our resolve, a challenge to the cause of liberty we’ve carried as a beacon for over two centuries.  

When I look at Ukraine, I see a people who refuse to bend. I see farmers turned soldiers, mothers shielding their children, and leaders who choose defiance over surrender. And I am reminded of what I said long ago about another empire that sought to crush freedom: evil prospers when good men do nothing. Well, we will not do nothing.  

The Russian regime—under Vladimir Putin—has chosen aggression over peace, conquest over coexistence. They’ve torn through borders, silenced dissent, and waged a war not just on Ukraine, but on the very idea that nations can chart their own course. This is not a new story. We faced it before, in the long twilight struggle against the Soviet Union. And we know how it ends—when free people stand together, tyranny falters.  

As your president, I’ve ordered a surge of support to Ukraine—advanced weapons, missile defenses, and the tools they need to defend their homes. We’re not there to fight their war, but to ensure they can. I’ve told our NATO allies: this is no time for half-measures. We’ve bolstered our forces in Poland, in the Baltics, along freedom’s frontier—because strength, not weakness, keeps the peace. And we’ve tightened the vise of sanctions on Moscow, targeting their oil and gas, the lifeblood of their war machine. Let there be no mistake: we will make them feel the cost of their choices.  

To those who say this isn’t our fight, I say this: if we let Ukraine fall, we embolden every dictator watching. If we turn away, we invite the next war to our doorstep. The price of standing up today is steep—but the cost of bowing tomorrow is beyond measure. History teaches us that appeasement is a down payment on regret.  

I’ve spoken with leaders across the free world, from London to Tokyo, and the message is clear: we’re in this together. We don’t seek war, but we won’t shrink from it if freedom’s at stake. And to the people of Russia, I say: this is not your fight either. Your sons are sent to die for a cause that offers you nothing but chains. Truth has a way of breaking through, even in the darkest places.  

Now, I know times are tough here at home. Gas prices sting, groceries bite. But Americans have never shied from sacrifice when the stakes are this high. I believe in you—in us. We’re the nation that turned back kings, that lit the way through a great depression, that faced down a cold war and won. We’ve got grit, we’ve got heart, and we’ve got a vision of a world where free people thrive.  

So let us stand with Ukraine, not out of charity, but out of conviction. Let us show the world that the flame of liberty burns brighter than ever. As I said years ago, we have a rendezvous with destiny. And we’ll meet it—together—with courage, with resolve, and with faith in the God who made us free.  

Thank you, God bless you, and God bless America.