Periodic Covid

Interesting.

Covid R-factor (in France) is almost perfectly periodic with the period of about 3 months and it doesn't seem to depend on any external parameters (like season, vaccination, virus variant,...).

It looks like it has its own internal evolution mechanism.  

Nadace a jádro

Isaac Asimov byl opravdovým prorokem když za hlavní projev úpadku Galaktické Říše považoval opuštění jaderné energie.

Tato idea byla samozřejmě vynechána v novém filmovém seriálu, který ostatně má s knižní předlouhou společný v podstatě jenom název.

Na Gamě Andromedy vybuchla atomová elektrárna kvůli špatně provedené opravě a říšský kancléř si stěžuje, že atomoví odborníci jsou dnes vzácností. A řešení ? Vychovat nové? To ne! Místo toho chtějí omezit atomovou energii.
kapitola II.5

Upadající civilizace. Atomová energie zapomenuta. Věda zvolna přechází v mytologii...
kapitola II.1

publikováno v roce 1951

Omicron is coming

 It is now quite certain that the new version of that Chinese virus is more contagious but significantly less dangerous then its original version.

So all those sanitary restrictions will keep the more dangerous virus in place as long as possible as they will delay its replacement by its less serious version ?

Čínský mor v Singapůru

V Singapůru dochází k dramatickému nárůstu nových případů, vážně nemocných a umírajících na Čínský mor, přesto, že Singapůřané jsou z 85% očkování. To znamená, že očkování nefunjuje ?	Ve skutečnosti jsou vážně nemocní a umírající především mezi neočkovanými. 1) Očkovaní jsou těžce nemocní a umírají 5x méně než neočkovaní. 2) Očkováno je 5x více lidí než neočkováno. => 1) Očkování sníží pravděpodobnost vážného průběhu nebo smrti 5*5=25 krát ! 2) Neočkovaní se v podstatě nemohou nenakazit !

Une bonne nouvelle

La vaccination semble également progresser de manière exponentielle.

En doublant le nombre de vaccinations tous les 43 jours, 60% des personnes seront vaccinées (avec 2 doses) en 199 jours.

Vaccinality

Where is the vaccination more effective than the infection ?

Are we going towards the collective immunity via vaccination or infection ?

Ratio of people vaccinated to people infected in a day.

When > 1 then more people are vaccinated, when < 1 then more people are infected.

(The second graph is without Israel, so other countries are visible.)

COVID Peak

Poprvé po dlouhé době dává naivní sigmoidní fit nakažených v Česku pozitivní výsledek, 3 dny za kulminací, předpokládaný koncový počet nakažených bude skoro 800 tisíc.

Kulminace počtu obětí by měla nastat zhruba za týden, celkově bude skoro 15 tisíc obětí.

How to use Covid to measure Meteo

The graph shows the number of days needed to double the number of infected people (with the current infection evolution). Clearly, the higher, the better. 

During the summer, the doubling delay was growing almost linearly, which was very good. In September, in most European countries, the situation rapidly deteriorated. The weather was very cold. About a week ago, the temperature started to go up - and the doubling delay quickly followed. It will be interesting to see what happens when weather becomes cold again.

(The cause of much worse evolution in Czechia has probably nothing to do with weather.)

Winter is Coming !  

SIR with Sage

Very simple implementation of the SIR epidemic model using Sage
mathematical framework.

# Infected IInit = 1 # Susceptible SInit = N - IInit # Resistant RInit = 0 # Transmission rate betaInit = 0.5 # Transmission rate attenuation delta = 0.01 # Recovery rate gamma = 0.1 # Population size N = 10000 # End time tMax = 100 # Number of points points = 1000 # Standard SIR model def ODE_RHS(t, Y): (S, I, R, beta) = Y dS = - beta * S * I / N dI = beta * S * I / N - gamma * I dR = gamma * I dbeta = - beta * delta return (dS, dI, dR, dbeta) # Set up numerical solution of ODE solver = ode_solver(function = ODE_RHS, y_0 = (SInit, IInit, RInit, betaInit), t_span = (0, tMax), algorithm = 'rk8pd') # Numerically solve solver.ode_solve(num_points = points) # Plot solution show(plot(solver.interpolate_solution(i = 0), 0, tMax, legend_label = 'S(t)', color = 'green') + plot(solver.interpolate_solution(i = 1), 0, tMax, legend_label = 'I(t)', color = 'red') + plot(solver.interpolate_solution(i = 2), 0, tMax, legend_label = 'R(t)', color = 'blue'))

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Result:

Sigmoidal Fit

Interesting.
When I do extremely naive sigmoidal fit to the evolution of the number of virus victims in France, I get about the same prevision as prof.Raoult - that the epidemie will end very soon.
This can mean two things:
- Either I'm as clever as prof.Raoult.
- Or the other way.

Data-oriented Event Index WS

Presentation - Web Service

Voda a revoluce

Když pan Cílek před lety tvrdil, že v pozadí Arabského jara je ve skutečnosti nedostatek vody, považoval jsem to za přehnanou generalizaci způsobenou jeho profesí geologa. Ale čím dál víc se ukazuje, že měl pravdu. (A mimochodem, to sucho jenom velice málo souvisí s tzv. globálním oteplováním.)

• Iran: derrière la contestation, le fléau de la sécheresse et de la pollution
• Iran: A mega-drought and intense temps seen as tinder for uprising
• Drought triggers protests in Iran
• Manifestations en Iran contre la disparition du lac Ourmia

The Day after Irma ?

 The Day After Tomorrow - fiction

Irma - reality

Android for Particle Physics Page and Community

Page and Community

GraXML Resurrection

GraXML

has been resuscitated.

It's again available by

WebStart.

Android Applications for Particle Physics

 AWork by S.Chekanov

AWork is an interactive environment for scientific computation, data analysis and data visualization designed for scientists, engineers and students. AWork is an Android port of the jHepWork (jWork) Java project (for data analysis) and jMathLab Java project for numerical and symbolic calculations.

The AWork project supports symbolic and numeric calculations using Octave-like high-level interpreted language. A similar desktop application is called jMathLab. For data-analysis using Java numerical libraries, it uses BeanShell scripting language, with the full access to Java API and jHepWork collection of Java numeric libraries.

 LHSee by Ch.Boddy

LHSee: Discover what's happening at the LHC.

You want to find out how to hunt the Higgs boson with her cell phone? Ever wondered how the experiments work at the Large Hadron Collider, and the collisions look like?

Scientists at the world's largest scientific experiment - the Large Hadron Collider at CERN in Geneva - try to answer basic questions about the universe, the origin of mass and the structure of space and time. LHSee makes the hadron collider for all who have an Android smartphone or tablet PC, accessible. Written by scientists at Oxford University in collaboration with the ATLAS experiment at CERN, this app is for use by experts and laymen alike conceived.

For the first time, you can now get transferred from the collision events in Geneva underground detectors directly in real time on your device. The app includes a variety of educational resources, and allows you to interact with the 3D shown in collision events. You can find out how to work the different parts of the detector and learn how to recognize different types of collisions. With the game "The hunt for the Higgs boson," Your new skills will be put to the test.

 arXiv mobile by Nonlinear Apps

Keep up with the latest science research: physics, math, computers science arXiv mobile is science on your phone! Browse daily science articles (Physics, Astronomy, Math...) at arXiv.org and search the entire arXiv collection. This is a must have app for every scientist and physicist. You can read PDFs, save them for later reading and share articles via email/twitter etc... A homescreen widget lets you know of any new articles in your favorite science categories (dozens of physics, math, computer science categories) or custom searches.

 PDG Particle Listings by Ch.H.Christensen

An Android version of the famous PDG booklet (almost). This app shows the basic properties of various particles, as well as their decay modes.

 ATLAS Status by Atlas

An expert monitoring app for ATLAS on-call experts. This app requires CERN login rights in order to be used. It presents the current operational status of the ATLAS partition, including Run Status (i.e. Running, Configured, Initial, etc.), a summary of the busy status, the included hardware, and the LHC page 1 message.

 Particle Physics Booklet by I.Kreslo

Mobile version of PDG Particle Physics Booklet 2010.

 Particle Properties by I.Kreslo

Offline database for properties of elementary particles. Based on the table of masses, widths, and PDG Monte Carlo particle ID numbers published by Particle Database Group, issue of 2008.

 The Standard Model by Appocalypse

The standard model of particle physics reference app. As complete as they come. Will update multiple times.

 ioda by G.Barrand

ioda should be read "IO-DA", IO for Input/Output and DA for Data Analysis. It is a scientific application that permits to read files at various formats as FITS used in astronomy, AIDA and ROOT used in high energy physics (HEP), JPG to store images and FOG developed at CEA/Saclay (France) to describe the LHC/ATLAS detector geometry. ioda permits to browse these files and visualize some of their data.

For AIDA files, the histograms 1D, 2D, profiles 1D, 2D can be plotted. For ROOT files, ioda can plot TH[1,2][D,F] objects along than TProfile ones. For JPG files, the image is visualized. For FITS files, the "HDUs" can be listed and their keys can be seen. If the HDU is an IMAGE_HDU type, ioda attempts to visualize it as an image (which is one of the primary goal of the FITS format : store astronomical pictures). If the HDU is a BINARY_TBL, ioda shows a description of the columns (name, type) and proposes to histogram and plot a choosen column. Files at the FOG CEA/Saclay format permit to visualize LHC/ATLAS sub detectors

 Agora by G.Barrand

This is a first version of a smartphone/tablet like event display for the LHC/ATLAS experiment. This first version is more a proof of concept (a "concept app") than an application ready to do physics. Anyway it can give to someone novice in high energy physics (HEP) a glance at what a HEP detector looks like.

Part of the geometry comes from an atlas.root file found on the CERN/ROOT web site (courtesy of the CERN/EP/SFT group) but also from FOG files created some time ago by L.Chevalier, C.Baudry, Marc Virchaux of CEA/Saclay (France). The su4small.dst file coming with the app and containing some events is a courtesy of the ATLAS LAL group. Special thanks here to L.Duflot for having prepared this very light event file. Else, the "way of doing" is the same than for the ioda application and the agora app is developed by using the inlib/exlib as explained in the ioda web pages.

 PMX by G.Barrand

This is a first version of a smartphone/tablet like event display for the LHC/LHCb experiment. This first version is more a proof of concept (a "concept app") than an application ready to do physics. Anyway it can give to someone novice in high energy physics (HEP) a glance at what a HEP detector looks like.

The geometry comes from an lhcbfull.root file found on the CERN/ROOT web site (courtesy of the CERN/EP/SFT group). The bdpi_ghost.dst file coming with the app and containing two events is the default event file, created long time ago, for the LHCb Panoramix event display (courtesy of the LHCb software team). Else, the "way of doing" is the same than for the ioda application and the pmx app is developed by using the inlib/exlib as explained in the ioda web pages.

 g4view by G.Barrand

g4view is a scientific application that permits to read geometry files at the Geant4 GDML format describing particle physics detectors. g4view permits to visualize the geometry of a loaded detector. It can read also "scenarios" files that permit to choose the volumes seen from GDML and strongly customize their graphical attributes as the coloring or the wire frame/solid rendering. A scenario permits also to customize an adapted particle source. From the main menu, you can then start a "particle through matter" simulation of the detector which is done by using the Geant4 toolkit. g4view can also read and execute "mac" files containing Geant4 scripting commands. Under the examples menu, there are predefined typical setups, as a piece of an electromagnetic calorimeter, intended to be used for particle physics detector teaching. We recall that Geant4 is a particle through matter simulation toolkit heavily used in high energy physics (for example at the CERN LHC experiments), but also for spatial and medical science.

 LHC Status by G.Barrand

LHCStatus permits to view the beam status of the CERN LHC accelerator.

 PACLC by J.Hrivnac

An Android client to Atlas Athenaeum (remote Athena) framework.

 Alidroid by Androworks

Android interface to MonALISA repository for ALICE.

 Radiation to Electronics by Ch.Daviet

The Last Words on the Moon

40 years ago:

"Bob, this is Gene, and I'm on the surface; and, as I take man's last step from the surface, back home for some time to come - but we believe not too long into the future - I'd like to just (say) what I believe history will record. That America's challenge of today has forged man's destiny of tomorrow. And, as we leave the Moon at Taurus-Littrow, we leave as we came and, God willing, as we shall return, with peace and hope for all mankind."

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Atlas Control Room

Oui, Toutes les plantes sont des poisons !

Nouvel Obs a testé une plante OGM - maïs OGM NK603. Ils ont trouvé qu'elle est toxique (cancérogène). Et ils ont conclu que les OGM sont des poisons.

En utilisant la même procédure, il est facile de prouver que toutes les plantes sont toxiques, OGM ou pas. Juste tester une plante, par exemple Nerium (Oleander). Oleander est toxique - dont toutes les plantes sont toxique. En fait, en utilisant la même généralisation, vous pouvez prouver que tout est toxique.

Leur test est inutile concernant OGM en tant que telle, leur test est valide seulement pour maïs OGM NK 603. Et le titre est abusif.


Autres faits gênants:

• L'étude sur le maïs OGM de Monsanto n'est pas publique. Pourquoi?
• Les scientifiques qui faisaient cette expérience sont apparemment liés aux groupes de militants anti-OGM et aux entreprises "bio".

(Nouvel Obs)

Opusteny Mesic

Od Gagarinova letu k Armstrongovo krokum na Mesici uplynulo pouhych 8 let.

Od roku 1972 Mesic osirel. Uz 40 let po nem nikdo nechodil.

Pokud dnes planujeme let na Mesic, tak se mluvi nekdy o roku 2030 - tj. za 18 let ! S nesrovnatelne vyspelejsi technologii nez bylo Apollo.

Neni to smutne ?