Monday, March 17, 2025

Why ?

 Mostly, even if we don't agree with him, Trump does things that are popular with a large part of his voters.

With one exception - Ukraine. Even for Trump voters, Ukraine is significantly more popular than Russia. But Trump still stands very visibly on Russia's side.

Why?

Are we prepared ?

 I hope that Europe is preparing for the following, very likely, scenario:

  • Tomorrow Trump will accede to the demands of his Russian boss, including:
    • disarmament of Ukraine
    • replacement of the Ukrainian government with Russian collaborators
    • handover of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant to Russia
    • handover of Odessa (with its port) to Russia
  • Ukraine will not agree
  • Trump will label Ukraine a warmonger, lift sanctions against Russia and stop all support for Ukraine (and perhaps replace it with support for Russia)

Is Europe ready to support Ukraine against Trump's will?

Saturday, March 15, 2025

Smart

President Trump announced that he would personally develop a strategy for American warfare against Greenland, Denmark, Canada, and Panama. He said:

"I have to do it, not the generals, they're smart, but I'm smarter, would you believe it?

People have said I'm smarter than them.

I'm very smart."

Monday, March 3, 2025

How many Ukrainiens have been killed in 20th century by Russians

Key Events and Estimates

Russian Civil War and Early Soviet Period (1917–1922)

After the Russian Revolution, Ukraine saw significant conflict during the Russian Civil War, including the struggle for independence (1917–1921) and subsequent Soviet consolidation. Estimates suggest that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians died due to fighting, executions, and famine. While exact numbers are elusive, some historians estimate around 100,000 to 500,000 Ukrainian deaths from violence and related causes during this period, with a portion attributable to Bolshevik (Russian-led) forces.

Holodomor (1932–1933)

The Holodomor, a man-made famine orchestrated by Stalin’s Soviet regime, is one of the most significant events. It targeted Ukrainian peasants through grain requisitions and collectivization policies, resulting in mass starvation. Estimates of deaths vary widely:

Scholarly consensus ranges from 3.5 million to 5 million deaths, with some estimates as high as 7–10 million when including indirect effects.

A commonly cited figure is around 3.9 million direct deaths, based on demographic studies and Soviet records analyzed post-1991.

This event is widely recognized as a genocide against Ukrainians by Soviet authorities, who were predominantly Russian-led at the time.

Stalinist Purges and Repressions (1930s–1950s)

Beyond the Holodomor, Stalin’s purges targeted Ukrainian intellectuals, clergy, and perceived nationalists. The Great Purge (1936–1938) and post-WWII repressions resulted in executions, deportations, and deaths in Gulags. Estimates suggest:

Approximately 300,000 to 500,000 Ukrainians were executed or died in camps during the 1930s.

Post-WWII deportations (e.g., of Crimean Tatars and western Ukrainians) added tens of thousands more deaths, with some estimates reaching 100,000–200,000 from 1944–1953.

World War II (1939–1945)

During WWII, Ukraine was a major battleground, suffering immense losses under Nazi occupation and Soviet reoccupation. While most deaths were caused by German forces (including the Holocaust, with 850,000–1.6 million Jews killed in Ukraine), Soviet policies and actions also contributed:

Soviet scorched-earth retreats and reprisals killed civilians, with estimates of 500,000–1 million Ukrainian civilian deaths linked to Soviet actions.

Total war-related deaths in Ukraine are estimated at 6–7 million (civilian and military), but isolating those specifically "by Russians" is challenging. A conservative estimate attributes 500,000 to Soviet forces (e.g., NKVD killings, forced conscription deaths).

Post-WWII Insurgency and Repression (1940s–1950s)

The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA) fought Soviet forces after WWII, leading to brutal reprisals. Soviet authorities killed or deported hundreds of thousands:

Estimates suggest 100,000–200,000 Ukrainians died in combat or repression campaigns against the UPA and civilian supporters.

Total Estimate

Adding these figures:

  • Low estimate: 3.9 million (Holodomor) + 100,000 (Civil War) + 300,000 (Purges) + 500,000 (WWII Soviet) + 100,000 (Post-WWII) = 4.9 million.
  • High estimate: 7 million (Holodomor) + 500,000 (Civil War) + 500,000 (Purges) + 1 million (WWII Soviet) + 200,000 (Post-WWII) = 9.2 million.
  • Reasonable range: 5–9 million Ukrainians killed by Russian or Soviet forces across the 20th century.

These numbers exclude deaths from natural causes exacerbated by Soviet policies (e.g., non-Holodomor famines) and focus on direct violence or deliberate starvation.

Percentage of Population

Ukraine’s population varied over the century:

In 1930 (pre-Holodomor), it was approximately 31 million.

By 1950 (post-WWII), it was around 36 million, despite massive losses, due to border changes and migration.

Using a mid-century average of ~33 million for simplicity:

  • Low estimate: 4.9 million / 33 million = ~15%.
  • High estimate: 9.2 million / 33 million = ~28%.
  • Range: Approximately 15–28% of Ukraine’s 20th-century population.